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jueves, 2 de julio de 2009

The Value of Macroeconomics

I received the past 24 hours very interesting comments about my former blog "The value of business intelligence" and how this is used among managers.

Most of the feedback was related to the fact that indeed the right information does not arrive at the right people while they need backup in using this information best.

I agree certain information needs a backup, especially when it is regarding the core business you are in. At least that is what I hear and see.

Still this is strange; getting education about your business from an external professional. I am often told this is to for come valuable information is missed or used by competition. Acceptable reasons but what about non core business information?

I find it very strange in our business that delivering none core business intelligence is not seen as important or lesser important. What is the value of Macroeconomics?

I agree macroeconomic forecasts are not very reliable. But are industrial trends easier to predict? Is it not the same kind of models and calculations where finally the lucky one is closer to the real outcome? Is it not true there are more under than outperformers?

Is it not true industrial and economic trends are too related to make a choice which is more important and that one cannot do without the others?

Of course core business is core business but still many claim macroeconomic data sources do not need to be improved or the way it is currently provided and utilized.

When looking back in history I find this hard to accept. Besides technology I believe industries have not experienced so many downtrends as economies. We are still in the middle of one!

On top is claimed macro data is not used frequently or can be found in the public domain. So, why all the fuss about the economic crisis when the numbers are not taken seriously?

Let us ignore growth indicators or consumer spending signals and when we need it we all go for the free out of date numbers. Is that a conspiracy or just a “I do not care what is better for the company” mentality?

Almost every corporate press release about the latest results or 2009 / 2010 outlook is full of blaming the economic crisis but so far hardly anyone seems to be upset about the numbers used inside their organization.

Or is it indeed just an excuse for not making the numbers promised 3-6-9 months ago?

When that what is available is called sufficient, why complaining about the economic turmoil? Should you not be warned then by your current resources? Or your local contacts / clients?

And what about your exclusive bank relations? Did they not shared their latest opinions or where they dealing with more important clients?

Furthermore new cost cutting strategies focus mainly on the short term but where are the efforts to look for improvements on business intelligence?

Is an economic crisis not the best time to look for better tools or spend smarter?

We believe the solution is to offer macro data in a consensus format to at least demonstrate the often large spreads between different forecasts of (well known) sources.

This tool will not claim delivering the best forecasts as such tool or resources not exist. More important is what the tool adds in terms of synergies (compared to what is available).

Like with any kind of information the implementation has to be done by the key users. We can deliver backup by explaining certain calculations but for sure want to for come lecturing time limited professionals about macroeconomic trends.

Some one informed me that numbers are the foundation of a building. "You need it for the structure, but you don't have a building with only a foundation".

In that sense we do deliver only a foundation as our material is not used by one key target but by all kind of key professionals through an organization. In this case the organization is the structure and the building at the same time.

This is the Value of Macroeconomics. Not as a priority but as the cement to keep the bricks together. To make sure professionals do not loose valuable corporate time researching non core business data in corporate time and to present a wider opinion of different sources than using the same provider that tells you what will happen in your industry.

I would like to add people have the tendency to criticize others without looking first at the differences. I believe a better solution would be to look at the pros and cons before making any decision or gesture. Then only with an open mind and giving the other the chance to communicate will lead to a win/win situation.

Unless of course there is no budget. There is an economic crisis but no budget for economic sensitive data. That is like sending out the fire department but without water. Risking spending more seems a better choice than spending a few bucks on a country report.

Using a budget restriction for a tool that is helping you in the crisis is like forwarding a decision to prevent a new computer virus hitting your PC. Sorry, new budget is available in 2010, put your computer off and let us all go home! See you in 2010 or when economies less affect the business. Then we will have another evaluation!

I look forward to your comments. Thanks again.