Since my last blog in August a lot has changed. A recession in Europe has become reality and the crisis jumped fast from Greece to Italy and now even Spain is closer to a default than ever. Though this did not come as a surprise what remains unbelievable it the lack of decision making.
What is clear is that the baby boomers or still their parents - very old politicians are still too common - simply do not have the leadership to make fast decisions. Instead their management style, not too long ago embraced and heavily rewarded, looks now very fragile without confidence.
While the economic, political and social situations in Europe go further down many other countries call for leadership. Why do we allow our politicians to keep on trying with finding consensus? Where are the leaders that dear to take a decision, even if that would be a controversial one?
What is wrong and should change in 2012?
1. What happens now is that the crisis will not be defeated but extended because the old boy school network is not willing to accept change. It took years for local, regional and country politicians to get the seats they wanted. They and their parties are not willing to give up their power, not even in legimate four yearly elections.
To reform change has to be undertaken from top to bottom. From changing laws to reform local boards and committees which require good guidance and planning. There is no evidence this takes place while everyone expects governments to act. This is not enough.
2. The weakest part of country must be changed first. Only providing funding is insufficient. Those who were in charge the past years need to be replaced. Unfortunately that is again the problem of the whole system as these people find themselves too important.
Like mentioned before when going back to the basics new people are required; not managers but experts. From schools and universities to hospitals and semi-government. The management culture of the 90s has failed; high costs but no results!
3. Admitting guilt! Apologies to the public! This is what should be done but those in charge for many years burning tax money, committing fraud, being corrupt and enjoying overpaid non result jobs simply refuse to give up or share power. This is a mentality problem.
Despite the mismanagement in the financial sector problems are mostly seen as caused by products but it were the directors and managers that approved taking too high risks, to re-sell mortgages and to give loans to anyone. There is no product problem but a “who is in charge” problem. Greed has become a product, a tool and now we pay the real price.
4. In line with all the above to solve the problems in Europe harder measurements are inevitable. Yes, Greece has to default and maybe Italy or Spain too. These countries are responsible but expect members of the same club to constantly rescue them against any price.
Companies that got declared bankrupt often try to restart and are successful when doing that with a new management and new investors. Unfortunately no European leader wants to take this unpopular decision to be remembered as the one that pulled the plug. Cowards!
5. Of course this is not child play! Any default has lots of consequences. Many banks will be forced to default as well. Finally this is the result of wrong behavior, wrong management, wrong decisions, wrong people and the wrong place and wrong moments. How more wrong is acceptable?
To let them “exist” and save them all by constantly avoiding the hardest injection of the sick patient Europe (or US) the future will remain more uncertain. More funding will be needed while we run out of it. Currently decision makers do not look ahead but backwards.
Conclusion:
Looking back success and failure go hand in hand but it looks like doing a step back is out of the question. Save the euro! Save the EU! Save the banks! Save all that did wrong! Save, save, save....
The most difficult task for humans is to change, to dear turning the ship, call it the day, throw the towel, to tell others they are wrong and to replace them. Look around! Countries that changed the past decades could do that thanks to a few of these leaders, others still fight domestic wars.
The biggest challenge comes when countries become rich and wealthy. Their population becomes spoiled and fat while most politicians only deal with personal interest. What is my future after politics? What board can I enrich and become financially independent?
A regional or global crisis is needed to get rid off these egoists but to get rid off them the nation has to choose for change. That is often impossible because the majority of the voters are less educated or easier to manipulate by the system of politics and media. "When voting me I will guarantee unemployment will be solved". Excuse me? My fridge has a guarantee, not you!! Can we sue them after elections, please?
Change takes more time when heading for the abyss than when enjoying a long period of prosperity. We are so impatience!! Small changes will help though but finally it will be inevitable that an unexpected event or decision will tremor the whole world. So, my advice for 2012 will be: Fasten your seatbelts! This is going to be one hell of a roller coaster!
viernes, 18 de noviembre de 2011
martes, 30 de agosto de 2011
Crisis solutions; back to the basics. Part one.
Despite the consequences of past recessions a new crisis might have similarities with past ones but has its own characteristics. Unfortunately instead of going in-depth in terms of fighting a crisis nothing is changed basically. Still changing the basics could be the best solution for the long run avoiding threats of double dips like now.
Basics are formed in each society and country by culture, education, people, jobs and politics. Here hardly changes are done and instead public investments are increased, taxes are adjusted or new projects developed but it is all too obvious and not sustainable.
To prepare a country and its society for another round of downturns it would be much better to change (read = improve) the basics. Let’s take Spain as an example for each of these basics.
* Culture: by keeping this the same, like mocking about the past too much or rivalry at a national level this can block any progress or improvements coming from inside a society, like creativity, innovation or even new inventions. A society that adapts can faster anticipate or accept reform and therefore experience a real recovery.
The Spanish government did not or could not anticipate on the housing bubble. Despite the demand for cheaper housing a new system of for example renting would be better than hoping the market recovers. Young people forced to live with their parents than can easily move out and start own lives etc. Creating regulators for this new system would also deliver jobs. Local government could regulate and integrate this system without many problems or constant interfering from Madrid.
* Education: current school systems must be adjusted (to international levels) based on the economic situation of a country not based on someone’s left / right political thinking. It is not necessary to change a system every four years because of a new government but because the economic conditions require such improvements.
Global changes should already have motivated Spain to learn better English but local national feelings, like Catalonia, block this to protect own languages while television and movies should be subtitled everywhere. Furthermore due to a crisis mothers are forced to look for jobs too but child care is not modernized like in other European countries. No governmental (fiscal) or corporate backup for working parents for example.
* People: especially young people demand changes but the older generations refuse to reform (quickly). This will finally only lead to more protests and people will become unhappier and more aggressive ending discussions at the streets.
In Spain in 2011 lots of demonstrations showed how people feel about the state of their economy and future. Still they cannot change much as their alternatives are limited or their representatives are corrupt and political polarized.
* Jobs: It is inevitable jobs will be lost in a crisis or even after as companies have to continue cutting staff to cut costs. Some sectors will hardly or even never recover demanding people to re-educate. Without the right adjustments in local job markets, like more part-time, and fiscal protection a job market will loose competitiveness or even stops growing.
Spain has the highest unemployment of Europe while half of all youngsters cannot find one. Even with economic growth back to pre-crisis levels this will take years to cut to acceptable levels. What is required is a complete reform but Spain lacks country and local leadership to make this happen or politicians simply do not want to cooperate. Elections will not change this, despite promises of the opposition.
* Politics: corruption, fraud and lack of vision only harm a society but it is more common than making real solutions. Power and money are the wrong mix for politicians everywhere. Politicians are notorious liars only presenting (read = protecting) their own interests. Globally this can lead to serious regional problems like (more) war (in Middle East, Northern Africa, India-Pakistan and Africa but even civil war-like clashes can be seen in Europe, the US or China if economic conditions do not improve but decline next 2-4 years).
´
Spain is dominated by local powers and Madrid only lobbies. The socialists, last bastion in Europe, look like to have understood their failures of hanging on socialism which is dead for some time now. Unfortunately the alternatives are not promising. The Partido Popular will not reform the economy of Spain or even try to change the basics out of fear of loosing power. Again politicians put themselves above the priorities of a country. This will sooner or later be regretted.
Conclusion:
Change is not bad, change is good. To promote change it takes a lot of time and courage even to convince those that have the power to change. This could be the older generations holding the keys of a government, city or even company. This could also be younger generations that through protests but also by studying and working hard can demand better education, housing and job generation (which their parents did before).
Spain has still the chance to make these changes but decisions now are taken too slowly. Other countries should also adapt faster and focus more on the basics, not on areas which cannot be changed. Investing in the infrastructure for example might be needed but has a too short positive effect. Governments too often choose for easy targets which can be powered up for a while like fiscal subsidies. Better is to work on the pillars of an economy, even though you will not be reelected or become most popular on TV.
To be continued…..
In Part two of this subject there will be more attention on other countries, on the threat of another recession and on the alternatives now offered in stressed countries.
Basics are formed in each society and country by culture, education, people, jobs and politics. Here hardly changes are done and instead public investments are increased, taxes are adjusted or new projects developed but it is all too obvious and not sustainable.
To prepare a country and its society for another round of downturns it would be much better to change (read = improve) the basics. Let’s take Spain as an example for each of these basics.
* Culture: by keeping this the same, like mocking about the past too much or rivalry at a national level this can block any progress or improvements coming from inside a society, like creativity, innovation or even new inventions. A society that adapts can faster anticipate or accept reform and therefore experience a real recovery.
The Spanish government did not or could not anticipate on the housing bubble. Despite the demand for cheaper housing a new system of for example renting would be better than hoping the market recovers. Young people forced to live with their parents than can easily move out and start own lives etc. Creating regulators for this new system would also deliver jobs. Local government could regulate and integrate this system without many problems or constant interfering from Madrid.
* Education: current school systems must be adjusted (to international levels) based on the economic situation of a country not based on someone’s left / right political thinking. It is not necessary to change a system every four years because of a new government but because the economic conditions require such improvements.
Global changes should already have motivated Spain to learn better English but local national feelings, like Catalonia, block this to protect own languages while television and movies should be subtitled everywhere. Furthermore due to a crisis mothers are forced to look for jobs too but child care is not modernized like in other European countries. No governmental (fiscal) or corporate backup for working parents for example.
* People: especially young people demand changes but the older generations refuse to reform (quickly). This will finally only lead to more protests and people will become unhappier and more aggressive ending discussions at the streets.
In Spain in 2011 lots of demonstrations showed how people feel about the state of their economy and future. Still they cannot change much as their alternatives are limited or their representatives are corrupt and political polarized.
* Jobs: It is inevitable jobs will be lost in a crisis or even after as companies have to continue cutting staff to cut costs. Some sectors will hardly or even never recover demanding people to re-educate. Without the right adjustments in local job markets, like more part-time, and fiscal protection a job market will loose competitiveness or even stops growing.
Spain has the highest unemployment of Europe while half of all youngsters cannot find one. Even with economic growth back to pre-crisis levels this will take years to cut to acceptable levels. What is required is a complete reform but Spain lacks country and local leadership to make this happen or politicians simply do not want to cooperate. Elections will not change this, despite promises of the opposition.
* Politics: corruption, fraud and lack of vision only harm a society but it is more common than making real solutions. Power and money are the wrong mix for politicians everywhere. Politicians are notorious liars only presenting (read = protecting) their own interests. Globally this can lead to serious regional problems like (more) war (in Middle East, Northern Africa, India-Pakistan and Africa but even civil war-like clashes can be seen in Europe, the US or China if economic conditions do not improve but decline next 2-4 years).
´
Spain is dominated by local powers and Madrid only lobbies. The socialists, last bastion in Europe, look like to have understood their failures of hanging on socialism which is dead for some time now. Unfortunately the alternatives are not promising. The Partido Popular will not reform the economy of Spain or even try to change the basics out of fear of loosing power. Again politicians put themselves above the priorities of a country. This will sooner or later be regretted.
Conclusion:
Change is not bad, change is good. To promote change it takes a lot of time and courage even to convince those that have the power to change. This could be the older generations holding the keys of a government, city or even company. This could also be younger generations that through protests but also by studying and working hard can demand better education, housing and job generation (which their parents did before).
Spain has still the chance to make these changes but decisions now are taken too slowly. Other countries should also adapt faster and focus more on the basics, not on areas which cannot be changed. Investing in the infrastructure for example might be needed but has a too short positive effect. Governments too often choose for easy targets which can be powered up for a while like fiscal subsidies. Better is to work on the pillars of an economy, even though you will not be reelected or become most popular on TV.
To be continued…..
In Part two of this subject there will be more attention on other countries, on the threat of another recession and on the alternatives now offered in stressed countries.
miércoles, 3 de agosto de 2011
Data manipulation or just rumors as usual?
Manipulation has been associated before but recent market rumors do not point at Chinese governmental releases of economic outlooks but at those related to the job markets in the United States.
On top of these rumors stock exchange parties are accused of manipulating markets using inside information to keep the exchanges running due to a lack of buying activity or funding.
Now for what is seen in the past commissions like the SEC, CFTC or FDA have given severe penalties in cases of inside trading or the use of sensitive information but that did not avoid manipulation inside governments.
Manipulation is worse received in bad times than good times but so far it did not really get the western society alarmed in terms of speculation about their governmental official statistic releases. Fingers were only pointed to developing.
In countries where access is not granted or hardly any information is shared it is obvious any information is or can be disputable, even though always denied by their public servants or just ignored by the rest of the world.
But what if this no longer involves those political closed countries like China but for example the US? What if for example US unemployment figures can no longer be trusted?
Is it unthinkable that due to the ongoing crisis and events of the past years with the many bubbles, public uncertainties about governmental + local + public debt that the system no longer delivers reliable info?
Did people dealing with the numbers suddenly lost counting because they lost overview of what is reality, what is realistic and what can be expected? Have they been told to manipulate figures to avoid chaos or penalties?
What would that do for other developed economies where a threat is even higher like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy? How long have we been manipulated about their balances or vulnerable bank systems?
Do we have to rely on their messengers telling us constantly that there is nothing to worry about, no defaults, growth is back, no need for more funding is necessary or that the worst is over?
Is this trust needed to remain calm (or ignored) while politicians cannot even find agreement about their country future with their ruling counterparts or oppositions facing the worst deadlines ever?
When manipulation of numbers is indeed done to avoid more damage in for example the stock, bond and other capital markets there has no longer be a reason to give a fair value to a stock, bond, equity or even economic growth indicator.
Let us believe this is not true because otherwise we can throw the whole money system out of the window. Manipulation will always be part of trade but will not rule the trade as long as their are rules and regulations adapted.
For governments this is harder to track, especially large ones like the US. Not so long ago fraud in their educational systems was discovered affecting many and other developed countries found similar case on business schools.
Here manipulation of grades was used to keep the subsidies provided by the authorities. Imagine when you as civil servant constantly have to bring bad news and fear it will cost your job while jobs are cut around you. What would you do?
Till now there was no reason to believe western governments published manipulated numbers about their economies. It always happened far away, in small numbers or it simply did not affect the developed world. Latin countries but also African and even Asian ones where this was seen as cultural & political heritage but many countries have reformed and showed progress.
Would it be possible the developed world can no longer control its numbers? If so, would it not be time for a change to avoid this kind of rumors? Why does it take so long for politicians to wake up and start making improvements instead of egocentric behavior of winning next elections and promising a golden future to the people?
The answer will come and most likely sooner than later but regaining trust in a government, in a market or in a politician will take much longer. Let’s hope for some strong leadership in these challenging times to stop manipulation and to let rumors remain rumors.
On top of these rumors stock exchange parties are accused of manipulating markets using inside information to keep the exchanges running due to a lack of buying activity or funding.
Now for what is seen in the past commissions like the SEC, CFTC or FDA have given severe penalties in cases of inside trading or the use of sensitive information but that did not avoid manipulation inside governments.
Manipulation is worse received in bad times than good times but so far it did not really get the western society alarmed in terms of speculation about their governmental official statistic releases. Fingers were only pointed to developing.
In countries where access is not granted or hardly any information is shared it is obvious any information is or can be disputable, even though always denied by their public servants or just ignored by the rest of the world.
But what if this no longer involves those political closed countries like China but for example the US? What if for example US unemployment figures can no longer be trusted?
Is it unthinkable that due to the ongoing crisis and events of the past years with the many bubbles, public uncertainties about governmental + local + public debt that the system no longer delivers reliable info?
Did people dealing with the numbers suddenly lost counting because they lost overview of what is reality, what is realistic and what can be expected? Have they been told to manipulate figures to avoid chaos or penalties?
What would that do for other developed economies where a threat is even higher like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy? How long have we been manipulated about their balances or vulnerable bank systems?
Do we have to rely on their messengers telling us constantly that there is nothing to worry about, no defaults, growth is back, no need for more funding is necessary or that the worst is over?
Is this trust needed to remain calm (or ignored) while politicians cannot even find agreement about their country future with their ruling counterparts or oppositions facing the worst deadlines ever?
When manipulation of numbers is indeed done to avoid more damage in for example the stock, bond and other capital markets there has no longer be a reason to give a fair value to a stock, bond, equity or even economic growth indicator.
Let us believe this is not true because otherwise we can throw the whole money system out of the window. Manipulation will always be part of trade but will not rule the trade as long as their are rules and regulations adapted.
For governments this is harder to track, especially large ones like the US. Not so long ago fraud in their educational systems was discovered affecting many and other developed countries found similar case on business schools.
Here manipulation of grades was used to keep the subsidies provided by the authorities. Imagine when you as civil servant constantly have to bring bad news and fear it will cost your job while jobs are cut around you. What would you do?
Till now there was no reason to believe western governments published manipulated numbers about their economies. It always happened far away, in small numbers or it simply did not affect the developed world. Latin countries but also African and even Asian ones where this was seen as cultural & political heritage but many countries have reformed and showed progress.
Would it be possible the developed world can no longer control its numbers? If so, would it not be time for a change to avoid this kind of rumors? Why does it take so long for politicians to wake up and start making improvements instead of egocentric behavior of winning next elections and promising a golden future to the people?
The answer will come and most likely sooner than later but regaining trust in a government, in a market or in a politician will take much longer. Let’s hope for some strong leadership in these challenging times to stop manipulation and to let rumors remain rumors.
martes, 19 de julio de 2011
"Why the euro crisis has just got a lot worse"
This is asked at the front page of my copy of The Economist, always arriving late here in Barcelona while I already could get one in the kiosk with a print date on the 16th. This has nothing to do with the crisis, this is the best the Spanish national mail company can do.
Now back to the title. Why or where did it get worse?
Without reading the articles yet, which certainly will be of interest, we all know it got worse because no real decisions have been taken so far.
It is like politicians live in another dimension where realism is not needed and it is all about positioning.
Own positions to be precise as when really helping their countries decisions would have been taken much faster (although that is why they are elected and get paid for by taxes).
In a divided Europe without jurisdiction for hard and unpopular economic measurements group wise no individual politician is willing to risk (its position) or can because of nationalism.
Even those in the local opposition, crying loud blaming the government for every crisis being their entire fault, have no real answer. It is just a matter of postponing and hoping of some market miracles. Like it solves itself or gets better.
Should we really be worried? Yes, we should but the world will not stop turning. Some will be less hurt than others but a new (or better prolongation of the current one) crisis will cost us much more.
As explained by many, like The Economist, it is not wise to keep on providing more and more aid without real reform, without signs of countries going deep to restructure debts and rebuild its economies.
Unfortunately politicians do not take decisions, they only extend problems. They do not solve problems; they leave them for their successors. They want to shine and be remembered as good leaders in the short period they have their stages.
It was like this for 50 years how developed supported developing countries where now after all we know what really happened with our (tax) money and finally some organizations decided to give aid differently.
It is time for the old democracies to do the same and perhaps it is therefore that this has to start with Greece getting down where it all started once followed by for example Italy as another former empire.
As long as politicians do not see a need of putting aside their own interest (from the US till China, from The Netherlands till Argentina, from Japan till Canada and from Russia till South Africa) there will be no real change.
Real change means a new era of communication and cooperation. Instead of contradictions (good example the current fight of Democrats & Republicans in the US) politicians should demonstrate they really care.
If the next 6 months the politicians in the euro area cannot find agreements on the future of the euro and the battled countries but only increase emergency funds more will be destroyed of what slightly has recovered the past two years.
This will mean more problems for Ireland, Portugal, Greece and also Italy will no longer be able to avoid real domestic trouble. It will mean more pain for Spain where corporate and public restructuring will increase unemployment up to 30% or even more.
Elections, sooner or later, will not change much. Like Spain many are too divided with too many individuals rather looking for personal gain than reforming a country. At the end reforming is tougher than leading a country in healthy times. Who wants to be the one making unpopular decisions?
Spain for example needs to restructure public domain, education, housing markets, its competitiveness in services and products and for sure its political systems. Who will do that? Will it really happen after 30 years of pampering by Brussels? Or do we need to wait for a next generation?
That is perhaps the real problem. We got spoiled with social security and by prosperity named consuming. Developing countries can no longer develop because all immigrate while developed is getting stuck in its own social systems. The longer this continues, the worse it will get.
Where are the type of leaders of 50 - 100 - 500 years ago that reformed countries after wars, revolutions, decolonization and human development? Where are those dare to say we failed? Which politicians can be realistic and dare to tell (us) the truth?
Or do we really need again these wars and revolutions to realize that what we have created is only to show off, for personal gain or to suppress others?
Compared to what human kind experienced so far historically any euro crisis is child’s play but let’s hope some adults stand up and make real history. It has been too long ago!
Now back to the title. Why or where did it get worse?
Without reading the articles yet, which certainly will be of interest, we all know it got worse because no real decisions have been taken so far.
It is like politicians live in another dimension where realism is not needed and it is all about positioning.
Own positions to be precise as when really helping their countries decisions would have been taken much faster (although that is why they are elected and get paid for by taxes).
In a divided Europe without jurisdiction for hard and unpopular economic measurements group wise no individual politician is willing to risk (its position) or can because of nationalism.
Even those in the local opposition, crying loud blaming the government for every crisis being their entire fault, have no real answer. It is just a matter of postponing and hoping of some market miracles. Like it solves itself or gets better.
Should we really be worried? Yes, we should but the world will not stop turning. Some will be less hurt than others but a new (or better prolongation of the current one) crisis will cost us much more.
As explained by many, like The Economist, it is not wise to keep on providing more and more aid without real reform, without signs of countries going deep to restructure debts and rebuild its economies.
Unfortunately politicians do not take decisions, they only extend problems. They do not solve problems; they leave them for their successors. They want to shine and be remembered as good leaders in the short period they have their stages.
It was like this for 50 years how developed supported developing countries where now after all we know what really happened with our (tax) money and finally some organizations decided to give aid differently.
It is time for the old democracies to do the same and perhaps it is therefore that this has to start with Greece getting down where it all started once followed by for example Italy as another former empire.
As long as politicians do not see a need of putting aside their own interest (from the US till China, from The Netherlands till Argentina, from Japan till Canada and from Russia till South Africa) there will be no real change.
Real change means a new era of communication and cooperation. Instead of contradictions (good example the current fight of Democrats & Republicans in the US) politicians should demonstrate they really care.
If the next 6 months the politicians in the euro area cannot find agreements on the future of the euro and the battled countries but only increase emergency funds more will be destroyed of what slightly has recovered the past two years.
This will mean more problems for Ireland, Portugal, Greece and also Italy will no longer be able to avoid real domestic trouble. It will mean more pain for Spain where corporate and public restructuring will increase unemployment up to 30% or even more.
Elections, sooner or later, will not change much. Like Spain many are too divided with too many individuals rather looking for personal gain than reforming a country. At the end reforming is tougher than leading a country in healthy times. Who wants to be the one making unpopular decisions?
Spain for example needs to restructure public domain, education, housing markets, its competitiveness in services and products and for sure its political systems. Who will do that? Will it really happen after 30 years of pampering by Brussels? Or do we need to wait for a next generation?
That is perhaps the real problem. We got spoiled with social security and by prosperity named consuming. Developing countries can no longer develop because all immigrate while developed is getting stuck in its own social systems. The longer this continues, the worse it will get.
Where are the type of leaders of 50 - 100 - 500 years ago that reformed countries after wars, revolutions, decolonization and human development? Where are those dare to say we failed? Which politicians can be realistic and dare to tell (us) the truth?
Or do we really need again these wars and revolutions to realize that what we have created is only to show off, for personal gain or to suppress others?
Compared to what human kind experienced so far historically any euro crisis is child’s play but let’s hope some adults stand up and make real history. It has been too long ago!
viernes, 1 de julio de 2011
Cooperation and communication; the key to (do) better?
In business and in politics it is the hardest to do; working together (to benefit together). Examples enough but let us focus on a few to end with the key.
Since Obama is president Republicans do their best to disorganize him; nothing wrong with reminding him of promises, criticizing and delivering better solutions though.
Unfortunately that hardly happens. Too much is at stake, so instead of handing over solutions they fight him internally. The biggest enemy of the US is their own political scene which decides the future.
Obama needs more support now because if he looses the next elections the Republicans will have to continue with a sloppy economy, high unemployment, the same health care problems and a huge deficit or even default. Not even mentioning the foreign threats and costly activities.
Instead of working together to fix the economy, to become more competitive, to protect the quality of life, education and human capital a few men decide they are more important. Or worse, their religion is more important.
Now this selfishness in politics is not new or can be solved easily. But why are most involved in corruption, taking advantage of tax payer’s money, not admitting any wrong doing, always blaming the other (party) etc?
Especially the past five years in perhaps the worst economic and financial crisis, the slow recovery, the global changes in terms of power and where the next generations are not ready to take over, this does not look very hopeful.
So, why do parties not work together? Why do we, the public, not force them? Why is the public a lame duck in every democracy? Are we too spoiled, too much pampered the last 50 years, too fat and egocentric to care about the next 50 years?
Talking about facts; with the highest unemployment in the euro zone Spanish politicians only accuse each other instead of working together. The results are and remain poor while elections will not change that despite the "promises".
In other countries like Argentina there is insufficient opposition to make a change. Where the rest of Latin America the past ten years could benefit from domestic reform and new strengths it seems the Argentine government is only doing what they did the last decades; taking care of those in favor of the government.
When the public cannot undo the way their politicians rule their country, even not after heavy and violent protests, the only hope is a global recovery of the economy. In that sense the European Union is better positioned than the Americas.
Despite Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy the other 25+ are doing better or not worse; a collective where the pain can be better spread (as the end of the pain is not in sight yet) than individual countries like Argentina or even the US.
Still even this patient, the EU, has to remove some tumors first. That can be done without loosing membership but to get an agreement about measurements, penalties and paybacks (lost investments) but a lot time is not left for clear decisions.
The next two years will be decisive for the next five years, just as the past seven years. Some will unfortunately not be able to make changes in time, some will. Those who will probably can lift some others till the next downturn.
It is too early to speak of an upturn and the recoveries have been short lived. Changing governments will not help much in this climate. Only when business and political leaders open up to their opponents proposing real cooperation and improve communication real solutions will be achieved sooner.
As soon as the signals are positive again the different parties can go back to their "individuality and ideals" but perhaps this united moment feels good. Would that not be a victory for all? Fighting the crisis together and continue working together on a better country?
The question is if these leaders really would like to have a better economy, better corporate results, better lives (for others etc). Because when things are going better, they will have competitors doing better and that is a threat to many.
It also marks that leaders are in fact not really leaders. They are scared old man (and some woman) not being able to do what they should do in their positions. That is why many fail while those who are successful shift places to continue their road.
As long as most leaders are not willing to share, only look at the short term and do not care about the happiness of others, any corporate, national or family crisis will take longer and a new one will be waiting.
Change will only occur when we really want to change and unfortunately this depends too much on some of us that decide for our future. When they do not change sooner or later we have to pay the bill (again) and the damage is done (again).
The key to do better fits in all doors but some doors will remain closed. Not because of the key or the door but because of the person that decides not to open. If only that person could agree here......
Since Obama is president Republicans do their best to disorganize him; nothing wrong with reminding him of promises, criticizing and delivering better solutions though.
Unfortunately that hardly happens. Too much is at stake, so instead of handing over solutions they fight him internally. The biggest enemy of the US is their own political scene which decides the future.
Obama needs more support now because if he looses the next elections the Republicans will have to continue with a sloppy economy, high unemployment, the same health care problems and a huge deficit or even default. Not even mentioning the foreign threats and costly activities.
Instead of working together to fix the economy, to become more competitive, to protect the quality of life, education and human capital a few men decide they are more important. Or worse, their religion is more important.
Now this selfishness in politics is not new or can be solved easily. But why are most involved in corruption, taking advantage of tax payer’s money, not admitting any wrong doing, always blaming the other (party) etc?
Especially the past five years in perhaps the worst economic and financial crisis, the slow recovery, the global changes in terms of power and where the next generations are not ready to take over, this does not look very hopeful.
So, why do parties not work together? Why do we, the public, not force them? Why is the public a lame duck in every democracy? Are we too spoiled, too much pampered the last 50 years, too fat and egocentric to care about the next 50 years?
Talking about facts; with the highest unemployment in the euro zone Spanish politicians only accuse each other instead of working together. The results are and remain poor while elections will not change that despite the "promises".
In other countries like Argentina there is insufficient opposition to make a change. Where the rest of Latin America the past ten years could benefit from domestic reform and new strengths it seems the Argentine government is only doing what they did the last decades; taking care of those in favor of the government.
When the public cannot undo the way their politicians rule their country, even not after heavy and violent protests, the only hope is a global recovery of the economy. In that sense the European Union is better positioned than the Americas.
Despite Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy the other 25+ are doing better or not worse; a collective where the pain can be better spread (as the end of the pain is not in sight yet) than individual countries like Argentina or even the US.
Still even this patient, the EU, has to remove some tumors first. That can be done without loosing membership but to get an agreement about measurements, penalties and paybacks (lost investments) but a lot time is not left for clear decisions.
The next two years will be decisive for the next five years, just as the past seven years. Some will unfortunately not be able to make changes in time, some will. Those who will probably can lift some others till the next downturn.
It is too early to speak of an upturn and the recoveries have been short lived. Changing governments will not help much in this climate. Only when business and political leaders open up to their opponents proposing real cooperation and improve communication real solutions will be achieved sooner.
As soon as the signals are positive again the different parties can go back to their "individuality and ideals" but perhaps this united moment feels good. Would that not be a victory for all? Fighting the crisis together and continue working together on a better country?
The question is if these leaders really would like to have a better economy, better corporate results, better lives (for others etc). Because when things are going better, they will have competitors doing better and that is a threat to many.
It also marks that leaders are in fact not really leaders. They are scared old man (and some woman) not being able to do what they should do in their positions. That is why many fail while those who are successful shift places to continue their road.
As long as most leaders are not willing to share, only look at the short term and do not care about the happiness of others, any corporate, national or family crisis will take longer and a new one will be waiting.
Change will only occur when we really want to change and unfortunately this depends too much on some of us that decide for our future. When they do not change sooner or later we have to pay the bill (again) and the damage is done (again).
The key to do better fits in all doors but some doors will remain closed. Not because of the key or the door but because of the person that decides not to open. If only that person could agree here......
martes, 24 de mayo de 2011
Can Spain sustain?
Economic reform is clear but what about society? Can Spain sustain their siestas, their late-night shows (children sleep at schools in the mornings), the first coffee breaks before delivering any contribution, the no-service culture and the (too) many holidays?
While it is the moment every person should support a turnaround changing and challenging the national behavior of a Spaniard seems to be a taboo. Even when Spain can become Greece?
When looking at the Spanish society it is clear an economic reform, cleaning up the low valued educational systems, breaking up the housing market or other necessities there is never a rush (mañana, mañana).
The just held local elections with a victory for the conservatives will not bring faster recovery or long last benefits from short term unpopular exercises. The opposition has nothing to offer in Spain.
If Spain would like to avoid another tragedy or become more resistant for future failures it cannot only change bank rules or asking again Northern Europe for financial support like the past 30 years. That will not kick back +20% unemployment!
Every person should wonder what he or she can contribute and if continuing like this could he or she really deliver a better future for their children instead of copying the behavior of the parents. Like the Spanish culture is untouchable.
Instead of again accepting local corruption and endless wars with the government (or changing places) Spain runs short of self-criticism. Perhaps current protests of youngsters are a start but who really cares?
As long as these protests look not to be supported by all or can be compared to student protests in other countries it is another incident. Is 50% of these youngsters and students satisfied and the other 50% unemployed and protesting?
It looks like Spain remains split up in their regional (national) quarrels where Madrid looks still too often down to the rest unnecessarily feeding the anger of the local parties that cannot let go of the past, like here in Catalonia. Like Greece there is only a national interest of "we" against "the rest". Excellent choice!
A national feeling can be less disturbing as long as the public remains open for fast changes but who would really support an increase of labor productivity or even saying good-bye to the “el Jefe” status? Lesser civil workers? Better infrastructure?
Take for example Barcelona; since 1992 (Olympic Games) no main changes of entering the city. The so called "rondas" cannot digest current traffic and connection from an ultramodern airport (just to show-off to Madrid) has no efficient public transport for tourists.
Just imagine; you arrive after a long flight and decide to take a train which stops in the center of Barcelona. First you have to take a shuttle, then crossing an old and useless corridor and find yourself with hundreds waiting for 2 trains per hour.
Now if the Spanish tourist sector really would have justified complaints like above a quick lobby would open doors but instead nothing changes. The tourist industry of Spain has remained unchanged just like its society. Everyone expects someone else will do the job tomorrow.
The younger generations can only find jobs in this primary GDP market but these jobs are temporal and do not offer trust or potential while many studied but cannot find a fit in the closed labor markets.
When Spain cannot unite and is not willing to take care of the younger generations nothing will change. Youngsters remain out of jobs, live with their parents as housing is too expensive and they cannot escape their vicious circles, just like their parents.
Hopefully Spain is not becoming Greece but instead of national egoism political and business leaders of Spain should worry more about the future instead of worrying about votes or who is next in power. And voters should no longer accept these tricks or only look what happens in the "pueblo" before it is too late!
Spain has lots to offer and can become again competitive with better options for the younger generations. To do that the older generations have to admit their failures by executing more unplesant but welcome reforming. Not in 2015 or in 2020 but now!
While it is the moment every person should support a turnaround changing and challenging the national behavior of a Spaniard seems to be a taboo. Even when Spain can become Greece?
When looking at the Spanish society it is clear an economic reform, cleaning up the low valued educational systems, breaking up the housing market or other necessities there is never a rush (mañana, mañana).
The just held local elections with a victory for the conservatives will not bring faster recovery or long last benefits from short term unpopular exercises. The opposition has nothing to offer in Spain.
If Spain would like to avoid another tragedy or become more resistant for future failures it cannot only change bank rules or asking again Northern Europe for financial support like the past 30 years. That will not kick back +20% unemployment!
Every person should wonder what he or she can contribute and if continuing like this could he or she really deliver a better future for their children instead of copying the behavior of the parents. Like the Spanish culture is untouchable.
Instead of again accepting local corruption and endless wars with the government (or changing places) Spain runs short of self-criticism. Perhaps current protests of youngsters are a start but who really cares?
As long as these protests look not to be supported by all or can be compared to student protests in other countries it is another incident. Is 50% of these youngsters and students satisfied and the other 50% unemployed and protesting?
It looks like Spain remains split up in their regional (national) quarrels where Madrid looks still too often down to the rest unnecessarily feeding the anger of the local parties that cannot let go of the past, like here in Catalonia. Like Greece there is only a national interest of "we" against "the rest". Excellent choice!
A national feeling can be less disturbing as long as the public remains open for fast changes but who would really support an increase of labor productivity or even saying good-bye to the “el Jefe” status? Lesser civil workers? Better infrastructure?
Take for example Barcelona; since 1992 (Olympic Games) no main changes of entering the city. The so called "rondas" cannot digest current traffic and connection from an ultramodern airport (just to show-off to Madrid) has no efficient public transport for tourists.
Just imagine; you arrive after a long flight and decide to take a train which stops in the center of Barcelona. First you have to take a shuttle, then crossing an old and useless corridor and find yourself with hundreds waiting for 2 trains per hour.
Now if the Spanish tourist sector really would have justified complaints like above a quick lobby would open doors but instead nothing changes. The tourist industry of Spain has remained unchanged just like its society. Everyone expects someone else will do the job tomorrow.
The younger generations can only find jobs in this primary GDP market but these jobs are temporal and do not offer trust or potential while many studied but cannot find a fit in the closed labor markets.
When Spain cannot unite and is not willing to take care of the younger generations nothing will change. Youngsters remain out of jobs, live with their parents as housing is too expensive and they cannot escape their vicious circles, just like their parents.
Hopefully Spain is not becoming Greece but instead of national egoism political and business leaders of Spain should worry more about the future instead of worrying about votes or who is next in power. And voters should no longer accept these tricks or only look what happens in the "pueblo" before it is too late!
Spain has lots to offer and can become again competitive with better options for the younger generations. To do that the older generations have to admit their failures by executing more unplesant but welcome reforming. Not in 2015 or in 2020 but now!
lunes, 28 de marzo de 2011
LinkedIn; what is left of B2B? Is B2B still the key?
Personal experience justified me writing critical notes about LinkedIn where requests and comments the past months were only receivable in written by Customer Service but never responded by a senior manager or someone from the development / engineering team (addressed separately through LinkedIn).
Partly disappointment about unanswered but serious B2B tool issues, fortunately still benefiting, LinkedIn was approached to deal with important matters when doing B2B over the net and most important when claiming to be the largest B2B tool.
Why would LinkedIn ignore a paid member that has success in doing what they promote?
What is the future of a B2B tool that becomes less a B2B but more a common social media tool, a clone of Facebook?
Or did LinkedIn discover success is limited and the best possible scenario is a network without B2B?
The first real (and largest) B2B network is not interested in suggestions from a paid member. Why would the management ignore what both should have as a common goal; improving the tool?
Could this mark a new mission and would this benefit the LinkedIn member looking for B2B?
The management (or responsible departments) look like to be instructed as the core business seems no longer establishing B2B but on becoming another type of network.
Facebook is for example larger, more profitable and involves no business making its entry levels very low while there are also no expectations like in B2B.
This can easily be defended since most members of LinkedIn act the same as in any other network. They show themselves but avoid doing business for their company.
After joining LinkedIn in 2005 the first goal was a large network but that changed because of B2B successes and quality became the next goal. In 2007 it was best to upgrade to a paid member which opened doors that could have remain closed or were hard to open.
This was rewarded by good opportunities saving a crisis year like 2009 while 2010 contributed well to record sales from LinkedIn (client) connections and communication.
Perhaps 2010 was an exceptional as a result. Can we as a company repeat it and can we continue using LinkedIn as the best global B2B tool?
This is honestly doubted. Known for some time many LinkedIn users, despite their settings, do not welcome business deals at all (even when their profile identify them as decision makers) and more members are concerned about new job opportunities, getting recommendations from old colleagues or welcome anyone in their network.
The real doubt or threat comes from the management of LinkedIn. What is their business plan and strategy? A short term hope of being bought by other investors or perhaps merger with Facebook? A quick profit after now being listed on Nasdaq?
Before explaining further just a short translation of users at LinkedIn that should not be here or become open to business as they represent a company or organization;
- groups discussions hardly or never involve statements related to B2B from business leaders where introductions are used to overestimate skills, achievements and experience.
LinkedIn is clearly not yet accepted by corporate means where fear of spam is justified because LinkedIn cannot filter spam. In fact they let members do the guarding of new members like group acceptances.
Still transparency and connections fortunately can undo (some of) the above but this is a too small bias and should be the stronghold of LinkedIn.
- direct approach, even when activated business deals or reference requests in profile settings, are not followed up by the owner of the profile. They do not represent employer, left organization or feel embarrassed because of wrong title?
A majority of the members should do B2B because this is not Facebook but the majority uses this tool to look for jobs, to find old class mates or trying getting the largest network. Or is doing business no longer the purpose of LinkedIn?
Besides these negative aspects of LinkedIn in the beginning of 2011 some essential utilization changes took place or better said user limitations were activated.
Partly features are reduced to force subscribers to upgrade their account, to pay more as they probably do not want to loose their business opportunities.
Subscribers but also normal members must have noticed it is no longer possible to activate a link directly at your own profile to send a group message to another connection that is part of the same group(s).
Perhaps for non frequent members not that important but when using LinkedIn for new business often it will cause delays during office hours which are not appreciated.
Removing such link is not explained by Customer Service, by their developers or engineers while knowing the reason or better the advantage should be easy explained as this has a paid service. It is like bringing your own chair to the movies.
Instead the importance for the recruiting industry, network junkies and unwanted advertisements seem to win it from real B2B deals and are the main reasons for the board of LinkedIn to go public or let their teams cut on B2B utilization.
Going public and getting the same status as Facebook explains the changes because social networks are not places to do business but to give consumer behavior insights.
Social media networks might offer B2B for companies but not for its members. When networking communities like LinkedIn claim exclusivity for doing business they should do more for their members which are professionals looking for business, not for social behavior when being on the payroll.
The question is if LinkedIn is still following the same principle or is just reaching the status of a milking cow where individual B2B will become less and less of interest, especially in case of small businesses.
As long as there is room for fake profiles, spam, insults at discussions, unanswered business deals, wrong impressions, false titles and no B2B usage improvements LinkedIn is not an exclusive and business network but just like any other.
Let´s see 2011 was just a bad start or the beginning of the end. To be continued...
Partly disappointment about unanswered but serious B2B tool issues, fortunately still benefiting, LinkedIn was approached to deal with important matters when doing B2B over the net and most important when claiming to be the largest B2B tool.
Why would LinkedIn ignore a paid member that has success in doing what they promote?
What is the future of a B2B tool that becomes less a B2B but more a common social media tool, a clone of Facebook?
Or did LinkedIn discover success is limited and the best possible scenario is a network without B2B?
The first real (and largest) B2B network is not interested in suggestions from a paid member. Why would the management ignore what both should have as a common goal; improving the tool?
Could this mark a new mission and would this benefit the LinkedIn member looking for B2B?
The management (or responsible departments) look like to be instructed as the core business seems no longer establishing B2B but on becoming another type of network.
Facebook is for example larger, more profitable and involves no business making its entry levels very low while there are also no expectations like in B2B.
This can easily be defended since most members of LinkedIn act the same as in any other network. They show themselves but avoid doing business for their company.
After joining LinkedIn in 2005 the first goal was a large network but that changed because of B2B successes and quality became the next goal. In 2007 it was best to upgrade to a paid member which opened doors that could have remain closed or were hard to open.
This was rewarded by good opportunities saving a crisis year like 2009 while 2010 contributed well to record sales from LinkedIn (client) connections and communication.
Perhaps 2010 was an exceptional as a result. Can we as a company repeat it and can we continue using LinkedIn as the best global B2B tool?
This is honestly doubted. Known for some time many LinkedIn users, despite their settings, do not welcome business deals at all (even when their profile identify them as decision makers) and more members are concerned about new job opportunities, getting recommendations from old colleagues or welcome anyone in their network.
The real doubt or threat comes from the management of LinkedIn. What is their business plan and strategy? A short term hope of being bought by other investors or perhaps merger with Facebook? A quick profit after now being listed on Nasdaq?
Before explaining further just a short translation of users at LinkedIn that should not be here or become open to business as they represent a company or organization;
- groups discussions hardly or never involve statements related to B2B from business leaders where introductions are used to overestimate skills, achievements and experience.
LinkedIn is clearly not yet accepted by corporate means where fear of spam is justified because LinkedIn cannot filter spam. In fact they let members do the guarding of new members like group acceptances.
Still transparency and connections fortunately can undo (some of) the above but this is a too small bias and should be the stronghold of LinkedIn.
- direct approach, even when activated business deals or reference requests in profile settings, are not followed up by the owner of the profile. They do not represent employer, left organization or feel embarrassed because of wrong title?
A majority of the members should do B2B because this is not Facebook but the majority uses this tool to look for jobs, to find old class mates or trying getting the largest network. Or is doing business no longer the purpose of LinkedIn?
Besides these negative aspects of LinkedIn in the beginning of 2011 some essential utilization changes took place or better said user limitations were activated.
Partly features are reduced to force subscribers to upgrade their account, to pay more as they probably do not want to loose their business opportunities.
Subscribers but also normal members must have noticed it is no longer possible to activate a link directly at your own profile to send a group message to another connection that is part of the same group(s).
Perhaps for non frequent members not that important but when using LinkedIn for new business often it will cause delays during office hours which are not appreciated.
Removing such link is not explained by Customer Service, by their developers or engineers while knowing the reason or better the advantage should be easy explained as this has a paid service. It is like bringing your own chair to the movies.
Instead the importance for the recruiting industry, network junkies and unwanted advertisements seem to win it from real B2B deals and are the main reasons for the board of LinkedIn to go public or let their teams cut on B2B utilization.
Going public and getting the same status as Facebook explains the changes because social networks are not places to do business but to give consumer behavior insights.
Social media networks might offer B2B for companies but not for its members. When networking communities like LinkedIn claim exclusivity for doing business they should do more for their members which are professionals looking for business, not for social behavior when being on the payroll.
The question is if LinkedIn is still following the same principle or is just reaching the status of a milking cow where individual B2B will become less and less of interest, especially in case of small businesses.
As long as there is room for fake profiles, spam, insults at discussions, unanswered business deals, wrong impressions, false titles and no B2B usage improvements LinkedIn is not an exclusive and business network but just like any other.
Let´s see 2011 was just a bad start or the beginning of the end. To be continued...
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