Data manipulation or just rumors as usual?

Manipulation has been associated before but recent market rumors do not point at Chinese governmental releases of economic outlooks but at those related to the job markets in the United States.

On top of these rumors stock exchange parties are accused of manipulating markets using inside information to keep the exchanges running due to a lack of buying activity or funding.

Now for what is seen in the past commissions like the SEC, CFTC or FDA have given severe penalties in cases of inside trading or the use of sensitive information but that did not avoid manipulation inside governments.

Manipulation is worse received in bad times than good times but so far it did not really get the western society alarmed in terms of speculation about their governmental official statistic releases. Fingers were only pointed to developing.

In countries where access is not granted or hardly any information is shared it is obvious any information is or can be disputable, even though always denied by their public servants or just ignored by the rest of the world.

But what if this no longer involves those political closed countries like China but for example the US? What if for example US unemployment figures can no longer be trusted?

Is it unthinkable that due to the ongoing crisis and events of the past years with the many bubbles, public uncertainties about governmental + local + public debt that the system no longer delivers reliable info?

Did people dealing with the numbers suddenly lost counting because they lost overview of what is reality, what is realistic and what can be expected? Have they been told to manipulate figures to avoid chaos or penalties?

What would that do for other developed economies where a threat is even higher like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy? How long have we been manipulated about their balances or vulnerable bank systems?

Do we have to rely on their messengers telling us constantly that there is nothing to worry about, no defaults, growth is back, no need for more funding is necessary or that the worst is over?

Is this trust needed to remain calm (or ignored) while politicians cannot even find agreement about their country future with their ruling counterparts or oppositions facing the worst deadlines ever?

When manipulation of numbers is indeed done to avoid more damage in for example the stock, bond and other capital markets there has no longer be a reason to give a fair value to a stock, bond, equity or even economic growth indicator.

Let us believe this is not true because otherwise we can throw the whole money system out of the window. Manipulation will always be part of trade but will not rule the trade as long as their are rules and regulations adapted.

For governments this is harder to track, especially large ones like the US. Not so long ago fraud in their educational systems was discovered affecting many and other developed countries found similar case on business schools.

Here manipulation of grades was used to keep the subsidies provided by the authorities. Imagine when you as civil servant constantly have to bring bad news and fear it will cost your job while jobs are cut around you. What would you do?

Till now there was no reason to believe western governments published manipulated numbers about their economies. It always happened far away, in small numbers or it simply did not affect the developed world. Latin countries but also African and even Asian ones where this was seen as cultural & political heritage but many countries have reformed and showed progress.

Would it be possible the developed world can no longer control its numbers? If so, would it not be time for a change to avoid this kind of rumors? Why does it take so long for politicians to wake up and start making improvements instead of egocentric behavior of winning next elections and promising a golden future to the people?

The answer will come and most likely sooner than later but regaining trust in a government, in a market or in a politician will take much longer. Let’s hope for some strong leadership in these challenging times to stop manipulation and to let rumors remain rumors.